New attacks on Iran will lead to nowhere and the cost would be high
Trump gives diplomacy another chance after oil spiked on Friday. The Brent Jan-27 contract rose 1.6% last week.
Analyst Commodities
Söndag, 15 November, 15:03
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Oil on edge with fear of new attacks on Iran after US midterm elections
A slight pause after a rally to a high of $117.45/b last Friday. But market is on edge.
Oil prices are rising, but a picture of the future ME order may start to emerge
Spot crude oil prices at very high levels. The Brent 1M (November) contract yesterday traded between $103.76 – 108.
Dated Brent and Oman crude are showing the way higher
The Brent crude M1 contract (October) gained another 0.75% yesterday.
Tightness today versus risk of surplus tomorrow
Oil markets remain tight as the Strait of Hormuz (SoH) continues to be constrained. Things could become much tighter if it is fully closed. However, the outlook could change rapidly if flows normalise in early 2027.
Stay long or buy-on-dips in the run-up to the US midterm elections on 3 Nov
Brent rose 6% last week as hopes for a reopening faded. Brent crude rose 6% last week as hopes for ”an imminent reopening” of the SoH, as heralded by Trump again and again, faded completely. Brent traded in a range of $8…
Brent falling like a rock with oil likely to flow from SoH until at least 3 November
Brent M1 moving below the 200 dma of $78.7/b. Brent crude continued its move lower yesterday with a decline of 3.
Selling down on a ”deal”
”. Brent crude fell 6.2% last week with accelerated weakness towards the end of the week.
Oil product price pain is set to rise as the Strait of Hormuz stays closed into summer
Market is starting to take US/Iran headlines with a pinch of salt. Brent crude rose $2.8/b yesterday to an official close of $112.
Brent crude up USD 9/bl on the week… ”deal around the corner” narrative fades
Brent is climbing higher. Front-month is at USD 106.3/bl this morning, close to a weekly high and a USD 9/bl jump from Mondays open.
Market Still Betting on Timely Resolution, But Each Day Raises Shortage Risk
Down on Friday. Up on Monday. The Brent June crude oil contract traded down 5.
TACO (or Whatever It Was) Sends Oil Lower — Iran Keeps Choking Hormuz
Wild moves yesterday. Brent crude traded to a high of $114.43/b and a low of $96.
Oil stress is rising as the supply chains and buffers are drained
A brief sigh of relief yesterday as oil infra at Kharg wasn’t damaged. But higher today. Brent crude dabbled around a bit yesterday in relief that oil infrastructure at Iran’s Kharg island wasn’t damaged.
Buy Brent Dec-2026 calls with strike $150/b!
Closing at highest since Aug 2022. Brent crude gained 9.2% yesterday.
Brent near USD 100 again(!)… SPR headlines cannot replace Hormuz flows
Brent crude is trading higher overnight, up roughly USD 4.5/bl from yesterday’s close. That said, prices were at one point up nearly USD 8/bl during the night before easing back this morning.
It is like the market believes in magic. That makes Brent 2027 such a bargain
IEA Proposes Largest Ever Oil Release From Strategic Reserves (WSJ). Brent up 3.3%.
Nat gas up ish 100% in two weeks as supply vulnerability = reality
European gas markets are no longer repricing risk. They are pricing disruption. Ole R.
Oil Is Iran’s Weapon of Choice, Aimed Straight at Trump’s Midterms
Oil is Iran’s Weapon of Choice and the US gasoline pump is part of the battlefield. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps last evening declared the Strait of Hormuz for closed and that the military will set any ship on fire i…
Imagine 35 days of this. Day after day after day
Brent up 8.5% to $79/b while TTF nat gas is up 42% to €42/MWh. The negotiations was the bluff.
Brent above USD 71: Options skew and geopolitics argue against short positioning
Brent crude is trading slightly higher this morning, extending yesterday’s rally as the geopolitical risk premium was repriced higher on renewed US-Iran tensions. Brent is now up USD 4.5/bl from Tuesday’s low, and around…
Physical easing. Iran risk easing. But Persian Gulf risk cannot fully fade before US war ships are pulled away
Traded down 3.7% last week as Iranian risk faded a bit. Brent crude traded in a range of $65.
Brent crude will pull back if the US climbs down its threats towards Iran
Brent crude rose 2.7% last week to $65.88/b with a gain on Friday of 2.
Oil market assigns limited risks to Iranian induced supply disruptions
Falling back this morning. Brent crude traded from an intraday low of $59.75/b last Monday to an intraday high of $63.
Brent calendar 2026 on sale for $40.0/b (in 2008-dollar)
A great bearish week last week for the world’s oil consumers. Brent fell 4.1% and closed the week at $61.
OPEC+ quotas looks set to rise and US oil sanctions looks set to be toothless
Down this morning with concerns that US won’t enforce Russian oil sanctions towards China. Brent crude closed up 0.7% yesterday to a close of $65.
Brent slips to USD 64.5: sanction doubts and OPEC focus reduce gains
After reaching USD 66.78 per barrel on Friday afternoon, Brent crude has since traded mostly sideways, yet dipping lower this morning. The market appears to be consolidating last week’s sharp gains, with Brent now easing…
Sell the rally. Trump has become predictable in his unpredictability
Hesitant today. Brent jumped to an intraday high of $66.36/b yesterday after having touched an intraday low of $60.
Brent crude set to dip its feet into the high $50ies/b this week
Parts of the Brent crude curve dipping into the high $50ies/b. Brent crude fell 2.3% over the week to Friday.
Crude oil soon coming to a port near you
Rebounding along with most markets. But concerns over solidity of Gaza peace may also contribute. Brent crude fell 0.
The Mid-East anchor dragging crude oil lower
When it starts to move lower it moves rather quickly. Gaza, China, IEA. Brent crude is down 2.
More weakness and lower price levels ahead, but the world won’t drown in oil in 2026
Some rebound but not much. Brent crude rebounded 1.5% yesterday to $65.
A sharp weakening at the core of the oil market: The Dubai curve
Down to the lowest since early May. Brent crude has fallen sharply the latest four days. It closed at USD 64.
OPEC+ will likely unwind 500 kb/d of voluntary quotas in October. But a full unwind of 1.5 mb/d in one go could be in the cards
Down to mid-60ies as Iraq lifts production while Saudi may be tired of voluntary cut frugality. The Brent December contract dropped 1.6% yesterday to USD 66.
Modest draws, flat demand, and diesel back in focus
U.S. commercial crude inventories posted a marginal draw last week, falling by 0.
Market waiting and watching for when seasonally softer demand meets rising OPEC+ supply
Brent down 0.5% last week with a little bounce this morning. Brent crude fell 0.
Brent crude ticks higher on tension, but market structure stays soft
Brent crude has climbed roughly USD 1.5-2 per barrel since Friday, yet falling USD 0.3 per barrel this mornig and currently trading near USD 67.
Volatile but going nowhere. Brent crude circles USD 66 as market weighs surplus vs risk
Brent crude is essentially flat on the week, but after a volatile ride. Prices started Monday near USD 65.5/bl, climbed steadily to a mid-week high of USD 67.
Waiting for the surplus while we worry about Israel and Qatar
Brent crude makes some gains as Israel’s attack on Hamas in Qatar rattles markets. Brent crude spiked to a high of USD 67.38/b yesterday as Israel made a strike on Hamas in Qatar.
Brent crude sticks around $66 as OPEC+ begins the ’slow return’
Brent crude touched a low of USD 65.07 per barrel on Friday evening before rebounding sharply by USD 2 to USD 67.04 by mid-day Monday.
The path of retaking market share goes through a lower price
OPEC+ on Sunday decided to lift production caps by an additional 137 kb/d in October. Thereby starting to unwind the last tranche of voluntary cuts of 1.66 mb/d.
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